Passerelles Monteynard
SMPGD 2026: Statistical Methods for Post Genomic Data
January 29-30, 2026 Grenoble (France)
Toward Reliable Graph Analysis: Uncertainty Quantification for fMRI Connectivity
Alice Chevaux  1, *@  , Julyan Arbel, Guillaume Kon Kam King  2@  , Sophie Achard  3@  
1 : Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann
Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique, Université Grenoble Alpes
2 : Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées du Génome à l'Environnement [Jouy-En-Josas]
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement : UPR1404
3 : GIN, LJK, INRIA
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Inria, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LJK, Inria Grenoble Rhone-Alpes, 655 av. de l’Europe, 38335 Montbonnot, France
* : Corresponding author

Inferring brain graphs from fMRI data relies on correlation matrices, yet standard estimators are unstable in high-dimensional, low-sample-size settings. We propose a general Bayesian framework that avoids structural assumptions and quantifies uncertainty through credible regions for these matrices. Our method constructs these credible regions to account for the dependencies between all coefficients while maintaining reasonable computational cost. This approach enables applications not feasible with point estimates: (i) diagnosing estimator instability, (ii) robust edge detection with posterior control of the Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER), and (iii) direct comparison of two fMRI scans via the posterior probability of matrix equality. This simple, assumption-light framework improves the reliability and interpretability of downstream connectivity analyses.


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